ICG Agenda - November 12, 2019

Meeting Summary

Drought Status Update

Winter 2018-2019, followed by some spring precipitation in May and June, improved short-term drought conditions throughout the state. However, multiple consecutive years with higher than average precipitation are needed to improve long-term drought conditions. There were very few monsoon storms during the 2019 summer, exacerbating drought conditions throughout the northeast part of the state. By October, about 55% of Arizona experienced Moderate Drought (D1), 26% Severe Drought (D2), 14% Abnormal Dry (D0), and only 5% experienced No Drought conditions. As of November 12th, there has been less than 25% of average precipitation throughout the state for Water Year 2020.

Winter 2019-2020 Weather Outlook

The increased spring precipitation and delayed onset of monsoon thunderstorm activity was the result of lingering El Niño conditions in the Pacific. The relatively dry summer and early fall resulted in dry soils, which may reduce the amount of winter runoff even if an average amount of precipitation occurs. Although forecast models for Arizona depict neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions through spring 2020, water temperature forecasts in the Pacific and forecast model output suggest that conditions may shift towards a drier and warmer than normal winter.

Colorado River Water Supply Update

Winter 2018-2019 was wetter than average in the Upper Colorado River Basin leading to 120% of average unregulated inflow into Lake Powell, which helped improve Upper Basin reservoir levels. Lower Basin side inflows into Lake Mead were well above average for the beginning of Water Year 2019, but well below average since July 2019. The total Colorado River system reservoir contents increased from 45% (25.84 million acre-feet (MAF)) capacity at the end of Water Year 2018 to 52% (29.45 MAF) at the end of Water Year 2019. According to the United States Bureau of Reclamation October 24-month study, the end of Water Year 2020 projections indicate that Lake Mead and Lake Powell levels will increase, reducing the probability of shortage conditions. However, under the Colorado River Drought Contingency Plan (DCP), Lake Mead will be in Tier Zero, under which Arizona is obligated to contribute 192,000 AF to Lake Mead.

Salt River & Verde River Watersheds Water Supply Update

2018-2019 winter precipitation was much wetter than average, which led to a substantial inflow (210% of median or 1,121,000 AF) in the Salt River and Verde River watersheds. This is a significant improvement from spring 2018, which followed a very dry winter that produced the lowest inflow on record (17% of median or 100,000 AF). As of May 2019, which marks the end of the spring inflow season, the total Salt and Verde system storage was at 81%, compared to 58% in May 2018. Total precipitation over the watersheds during Water Year 2019 was higher than average (114% of normal), with some reservoirs reaching full capacity and spilling. A tropical system in September caused a significant flood event (6-8 inches) on the lower Salt River Watershed and generated some runoff, however, the rest of the monsoon season was the driest on record for some areas of the state and fall inflow was 45% of median. According to tree ring records, the current megadrought is the most severe from the 16^th Century to the present.

2019 Wildfire Season Update

There was a total of 1,781 state and federal fires in 2019, which was relatively similar to 2018 with a total of 1,937 fires. However, the number of impacted acres increased from 157,070 in 2018, to 371,940 in 2019 mainly due to the occurrence of 69 significant fires (extending beyond 100 acres) that covered a total of 353,814 acres. The fire season has been prolonged due to the meager monsoon precipitation and wildfires continue to burn across the state in November.

2019 Forest Health Update

Winter 2018-2019 precipitation reduced drought conditions throughout the state, improving forest and woodland health. The observed tree mortality from bark beetles in Water Year 2019 increased by only 65% (compared to 513% last year), from 275,933 to about 455,053 acres. However, this moisture also caused a foliar blight infestation that defoliated approximately 34,000 acres of native aspen across northern Arizona. The Pinyon-juniper woodlands in particular have become increasingly affected by bark beetles and continue to show significant population decline, which is a major point of concern. The minimal 2019 monsoon activity and the remaining bark beetle populations from Water Year 2018 have the potential to continue deteriorating forest and woodland health.

Recommendation

Although the 2018-2019 winter precipitation alleviated drought conditions throughout the state, the monsoon season precipitation was insufficient, and Arizona remains in a long-term drought. A few consecutive wet winters are needed to eliminate the long-term drought conditions that have impacted Arizona since the mid-1990s. The Drought Interagency Coordinating Group unanimously recommends that both drought declarations be kept in place.

Fall 2019 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Presentations

• Drought Status Update & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities,  Nancy Selover, State Climatologist, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-Chair
• Winter 2019-2020 Weather Outlook, Mark O'Malley, National Weather Service, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Colorado River Water Supply Update, Bret Esslin, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Salt River & Verde River Watersheds Water Supply Update
• 2019 Wildfire Season Update, Byron Kimball, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management
• 2019 Forest Health Update, John Richardson, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management

ICG Webinar

ICG Webinar

ICG Agenda - May 9, 2019

Meeting Summary

Drought Status

In May 2018, 60% of the state was in either Extreme Drought (D3) or Exceptional Drought (D4), and little relief was provided by the monsoon season. In October 2018, heavy rainfall, which lasted well into the winter months, saturated the soil and vegetation throughout Arizona. Precipitation from January through March 2019 improved short-term drought conditions significantly and 83.3% of Arizona became drought-free. Long-term drought, however, is still present in many areas of the State, including, extreme and exceptional drought conditions in the west and northeastern Arizona. As the summer season approaches with higher temperatures, snowmelt is likely to improve soil moisture and may bring further drought relief to these areas.

Weather Outlook
Monsoon activity in the summer will be influenced by the steering of moisture from northern Mexico and by weather disturbances in Arizona. Snow cover and drought conditions since October may have an influence on summer rainfall; high levels of soil moisture may suppress monsoon development while warmer water temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean may bring more tropical systems and potential moisture surges into Arizona. Since last summer, equatorial Pacific waters have been warmer than normal, and weak El Niño conditions have aided in the development of frequent storms affecting the Southwest United States. If these conditions persist through the 2019-2020 summer and winter seasons, the odds for above average temperatures and precipitation are likely.

Colorado River – Water Supply Status
As of May 8, 2019, total Colorado River reservoir system content equates to 46% of capacity or 27.63 million acre feet. Unregulated inflow into the Colorado River Basin (CRB) for Water Year 2019 is expected to reach 112% of average. Snowpack accumulation this season peaked on April 8 at 130% of the median with 21 inches of snow water equivalent. Due to the recent wet winter, a first level shortage is not expected for the Lower CRB in 2019 or 2020. However, according to the United States Bureau of Reclamation April 24-Month Study, storage in Lake Mead is projected to decrease to 38% of capacity by January 1, 2021.
Colorado River Drought Contingency Plan Update

Colorado River Drought Contingency Plan Update
The purpose of the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) is to reduce the probability that Lake Mead will decline to critically low elevations (below 1,020 ft). Implementing the DCP will reduce the probability of a third level shortage by as much as 34% by 2026. Under the DCP, total reductions in Colorado River water use from Arizona, Nevada, California, Mexico, and the U.S equate to 1.475 million acre feet at various elevations. This number more than doubles the reductions outlined in the 2007 shortage guidelines. Congressional approval for the Colorado River DCP Authorization Act (H.R. 2030) was granted on March 19, 2019.

Salt River & Verde River Watersheds – Water Supply Status
The weather in Water Year 2019 brought wetter than average conditions throughout the Salt River and Verde River watersheds with nearly 15 inches of cumulative precipitation as of March 30 (129% of normal). Verde River inflow peaked at 68,500 cubic feet per second after a heavy storm in mid-February, which led to an increase from 30% to 64% in Verde River system reservoir storage levels. In late February, elevations of as low as 2,500 feet received snow with an average snow depth of 12 inches throughout both watersheds, a snow water equivalent of 1.4 million acre feet. Cumulative inflow from January to May is projected to reach 1.1 million acre feet, which is double the median value for this time of year. As of May 7, total Salt River and Verde River reservoir system storage is at 81% of capacity.
Forest Health and Wildfire Season Update

Forest Health and Wildfire Season Update
The 2018 aerial and ground survey conducted by the Department of Forestry and Wildfire Management detected 275,934 acres of trees impacted by bark beetles compared to 45,003 acres in 2017, an increase of 513%. This drastic increase is largely attributed to the dry winter of 2017-2018, which stressed many trees and made them more susceptible to pests. This past wet winter improved forest health across Arizona and because healthier trees are better able to defend against bark beetle activity, reduction in tree mortality levels is anticipated. Drought impacts are starting to ease but still present in the form of dead vegetation, particularly in the White Mountains. Fine fuels (i.e. grasses, pine needles, and small herbaceous growth) that help fire spread quickly and intensely are observed at normal to above normal levels.

Impacts of Drought on Wildlife
Precipitation over the winter has filled water catchments for wildlife and there was no need for water hauling. Aquatic habitats have improved significantly since last year.

Impacts of Drought on the Navajo Nation
The Navajo Nation received average to above average precipitation in Water Year 2019 thus far, with a heavy storm in February which brought precipitation levels to above 200%. This led to a notable recovery in the drought conditions experienced in 2018.

Recommendation
Despite short-term drought improvements, these updates confirm that Arizona remains in a long-term drought and that the drought is expected to continue. The Drought Interagency Coordinating Group unanimously recommends that both drought declarations be kept in place.

Spring 2019 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Presentations

• Drought Status Update and Monitoring Technical Committee Activities, Nancy Selover, State Climatologist, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-Chair
• Winter 2018-2019 Weather Outlook, Mark O'Malley, National Weather Service, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Colorado River Water Supply Status, Rabi Gyawali, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Colorado River Drought Contingency Plan Update, Thomas Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Salt River & Verde River Watershed Water Supplies, Stephen Flora, Salt River Project
• Forest Health Update, John Richardson, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management
• Wildfire Season Update, Byron Kimball, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management
• Impacts of Drought on Wildlife, David Weedman, Arizona Game & Fish
• Impacts of Drought on the Navajo Nation, Carlee McClellan, Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources

ICG Webinar

ICG Webinar

ICG Agenda - November 16. 2017

Meeting Summary

Drought status

The 2016-17 winter through April was quite wet across the western U. S. and the northern two-thirds of the State received sufficient rain and snow to alleviate short-term drought. Southern Arizona did not receive as many winter storms and remained warm through the winter. Spring was also quite dry in southern Arizona, which prevented any short-term drought improvement. By the time the monsoon activity began, the moisture deficits were significant, and the monsoon rainfall was not sufficient to make up the deficits in south central and southwestern Arizona, even though Tucson had the wettest July ever with 6.80” of rain. Much of Graham and Cochise counties had frequent rain showers and short-term drought was eliminated there by the end of the summer. Northern Navajo and Apache counties were in good shape through the winter, but the relatively dry spring and summer brought abnormally dry conditions back by September. Much of the state is still experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions.

Weather Outlook

The official outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for January-March 2018 show a much better chance that the average temperature will be above normal. This is supported not only by forecast models and the influence of La Niña that is likely to persist through the winter, but more so the fact that Arizona winters are distinctly trending warmer over the past 10-20 years. The precipitation outlook depicts a slight tilt in odds towards drier than average winter, which is primarily a result of the La Niña forecast. Should La Niña conditions become stronger through the fall and winter, these odds may lean even more towards the drier than average side. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for July-September 2018 shows much better chances that the average temperature during these three months will be above normal.

Colorado River – Water Supply Status

The entire Colorado River Basin experienced a relatively wet winter, but these gains have weakened due to a warmer and drier than average spring. Total system capacity on the Colorado River Basin has improved from 51% at the end of 2016 water year to 55% at the end of 2017 water year. Reservoirs in the Upper Basin are relatively full, with some receiving over 200% of average inflow, and Lake Powell reached approximately 60% capacity. However, Lake Mead is only about 39% full, with less than 1,081 feet in elevation. Even though this winter helped generating higher-than-normal streamflow, Lake Mead could have declined to as low as 1,065 feet in elevation at the end of this calendar year, if rigorous conservation efforts were not pursued. Cumulatively, these efforts helped conserve about 1.5 million acre-feet in Lake Mead, which is around 18 feet of elevation. Both the conservation efforts and the wet winter helped keep Lake Mead out of a shortage in 2018; however, the probability of shortage in the very near future is still significant at 15% for 2019 and over 40% for the next three years. Furthermore, based on the last 28 years of historical hydrology, there is about 50% chance that Lake Mead will decline to a critically low elevation of 1,025 feet in as early as 2026.

Salt River & Verde River Watersheds – Water Supply Status

This is the first above-median runoff season (January-May) in the last seven years that the Salt and Verde River watersheds have experienced. As a result, Roosevelt Lake increased from 35% to 71% in capacity during the runoff season, and Bartlett and Horseshoe reservoirs on the Verde system increased from 45% to 100% full, and even had to spill some water. For the first time since 2010, water was also spilled over Granite Reef Dam. During the monsoon season, normal precipitation was received for the entire summer; however, its distribution was heavily weighted to July, resulting in well above normal monthly precipitation. The monsoon storms diminished rapidly in August and since then, dry conditions persisted across the entire system. Total storage in the Salt and Verde system has improved to 65% capacity, as of October 1, 2017, compared to 47% at this time last year. However, despite water supply improvements this water year, the wetter conditions were not sufficient to fully rehydrate the watersheds and reservoirs from the many previous years of consecutive drought.

Forest Health and Wildfire Season Update

The relatively wet winter enhanced vegetation growth, however dry conditions during the Spring lead to vegetation die-off which created substantial amounts of fine fuels. Due in part to these conditions, this fire season was extensive across the state; over 418,000 acres burned, compared to the yearly average of 300,000 acres. This year’s fires were also very costly; the Sawmill fire exhausted the yearly State wildfire budget of four million dollars before the season officially started, and so far, 15 million dollars were spent on wildfire abatement this year. Post-fire conditions lead to devastating floods, causing further social and environmental harms. Overall, the trend of acres consumed by fires is going up, and next year’s wildfire season is expected to be destructive as well. Though a lot of beneficial efforts were made to restore health to Arizona forests, much work is still needed. Brush and invasive species continue to reduce Arizona’s grasslands and the high cost of restoration is a big obstacle in improving forest health.

Impacts of Drought on Wildlife

Across the state, there are approximately 1,800 wildlife water structures that help ease some of the drought impacts by increasing water availability for wildlife, especially during the hotter and drier months. Construction of such systems started over six decades ago with smaller catchments, but as drought conditions persist, bigger catchments are being constructed to hold more water. Rainwater is also harvested in some locations to reduce water hauling. Nonetheless, drier than average fall conditions required more water hauling than usual: about 283,000 gallons this year, so far. Drought impacts on fisheries were also reported and significant declines in Rainbow Trout productions were observed in some hatcheries over the past 30 years. This is likely the result of declining spring flows, which rely on precipitation to recharge aquifers feeding these springs. Reduced spring flows have resulted in an increased cost of $230,000 needed to buy replacement trout to be stocked, in addition to increased hatchery operation costs.

Recommendation

The updates confirmed that Arizona remains in a long-term drought, even after this relatively wet winter, and the drought is expected to continue. The Drought Interagency Coordinating Group unanimously recommends that both drought declarations be kept in place.

Fall 2017 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Presentations:

• Drought Status Update & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities, Nancy Selover, State Climatologist, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Winter 2017-2018 Weather Outlook, Mark O'Malley, National Weather Service, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Colorado River - Water Supply Update, Jeff Inwood, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Salt River & Verde River Watershed - Water Supply Update, Charlie Ester, Salt River Project
• Forest Health & Wildfire Season Update, Bill Boyd, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management
• Impacts of Drought on Wildlife, Ed Jahrke & Dave Weedman, Arizona Department of Game & Fish
• Governor's Water Solutions Conversation, Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources Director, Interagency Coordinating Group Co-chair

Webinar (including all presentations)

Webinar (including all presentations)

Agenda - May 9, 2017

Meeting Summary

Drought status

This winter was considerably wetter across Arizona and throughout the Colorado River Basin than the previous five winters. Early winter storms in November and December combined with later storms in January and February brought significant rain and snow to northern and central Arizona. As a result, long-term drought and water supply conditions in northern Arizona are much better than they were over the past six to ten years. Southern Arizona had benefitted from a wet monsoon but missed out on the winter storm activity, leading to drought status degradation in the southeast part of the state. This winter, though relatively wet, was still not as wet as in late 1980s and early 1990s, before this drought began. While beneficial in the short-term, particularly for surface water supplies, the cumulative deficits to groundwater aquifers have not been alleviated. The drought status maps show much of the state is still abnormally dry and even the areas depicted as no drought have lost significant groundwater resources over the past two decades. Drought conditions are likely to worsen during the next few months, until the monsoon season starts.

Weather Outlook

Very weak La Niña conditions existed during fall 2016 and deteriorated through the winter, having little effect on winter’s temperatures and precipitation. Climate models suggest a 50% chance of El Niño conditions developing by late summer and fall, but these may not develop until September, which in this case will not influence Arizona’s Monsoon season. Sea surface temperatures are currently much warmer than average and could conceivably support more tropical systems and better moisture surges into southern Arizona this summer, especially if El-Niño conditions develop. The official Climate Prediction Center’s summer outlook predicts much better odds for above normal temperatures, continuing the trend of the past ten years of which eight were hotter than average (and the remaining two were near average). Arizona has not experienced a cooler than average summer since 1999. There are equal chances for above, below, or near average precipitation this upcoming summer.

Colorado River – Water Supply Status

The entire Colorado River Basin experienced a relatively wet winter, but these gains have weakened due to a warmer and drier than average spring. The great snowpack accumulated in the Upper Basin during this winter, almost surpassed snowpack conditions in 2011 - the wettest year since this Basin-wide drought began in 2000. This snow, however, is rapidly melting due to the warmer and drier conditions that started in early March. Lower Basin intervening inflows between Lake Powell and Lake Mead are higher than normal, averaging at about 130%, which is 227,000 acre feet above average or 3 ft. of additional elevation in Lake Mead.

Total system capacity on the Colorado River Basin remines at around 51%, similar to last year, with elevations in Lake Mead improving from 1,076 ft. in November 2016 to about 1,085 ft. in early May 2017. Besides wetter conditions that increased flows to the River, rigorous water conservation efforts across the Basin helped keep additional 8 ft. of water elevation in the Lake. Bureau of Reclamation’s April 2017 24-Month Study projections for Mead’s elevations at the end of 2018 range from 1,075 to 1,132 ft., with the most probable elevations of 1,102 ft. Probabilities for Lower Colorado River Basin shortage have drastically decreased since last year from 48% to almost 0% chance of Tier1 shortage in 2018. However, over 30% chance of shortage still exists for 2019, and thus conservation efforts within Arizona and across the Basin should and will continue in order to keep more water in the Lake and reduce shortage probabilities even further.

Salt River & Verde River Watersheds – Water Supply Status

This is the first wet winter after six dry years on the Salt River and Verde River watersheds, improving reservoirs’ storage from 44% before winter to 76% after winter, which is roughly one million acre feet of additional storage. This year’s inflows are above median for the first time in seven years and have almost tripled compared to past few years. This winter storms seemed to have favored the Verde system, and its small reservoirs have filled beyond capacity resulting in over 100,000 acre feet of spill. On the Salt River system, however, conditions were not as favorable as on the Verde, and Roosevelt Lake - the largest reservoir on the Salt - did not fill to capacity, and as of May 8, 2017, held about 71% of storage.

Wildfire Outlook

Winter precipitation lead to substantial vegetation growth that have already dried out in lower elevations due to higher than average spring temperatures. Because of these conditions, higher than normal wildfire incidents are expected in lower elevations with larger acreage consumed by these fires. This year’s wildfire season has already started with significant wildfires – Sawmill and Mulberry fires – burning in southern Arizona, which spread very quickly due to windy conditions, but soil moisture helped preventing more severe damage to infrastructure and surrounding environments. Mid-elevation wildfire activity will depend on precipitation and wind conditions during the upcoming months. Higher elevations, containing most of Arizona’s forested landscape, are in much better shape due to the above normal precipitation received, which translates to a ‘normal’ wildfire danger in these areas; wildfire threat still exists, but those fires will be more manageable than some of the devastating fires experienced in high elevations in the past several years. Fire outlook suggests that Arizona will have an active wildfire season, but predicted early monsoon storms will help mitigate fire outcomes, though these often lead to higher incidents of lightnings, which in turn increase wildfire risk.

Recommendation

The updates confirmed that Arizona remains in a long-term drought, even after this relatively wet winter, and the drought is expected to continue. The Drought Interagency Coordinating Group unanimously recommends that both drought declarations be kept in place.

Spring 2017 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Presentations:

• Drought Status Update & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities, Nancy Selover, State Climatologist, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Summer 2017 & Winter 2017-2018 Weather Outlook, Mark O’Malley, National Weather Service, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Colorado River - Water Supply Update, Jeff Inwood, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Drought Contingency Plan & Drought Contingency Plan Plus Update, Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Salt River & Verde River Watersheds - Water Supply Update, Charlie Ester, Salt River Project

 Webinar (including all presentations)

Presentations

• Climate Conditions Status & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities
• Rangeland Health Status
• Impacts of Drought on Wildlife

Recommendation to the Governor to Maintain Drought Declarations

Press Release

Presentations

• Colorado River Water Supply Status
• SRP Water Supply Status
• Climate Conditions Status & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities

Recommendation to the Governor to maintain drought declarations

The State Drought Monitoring Technical Committee’s annual update showed that there was a significant improvement in long-term drought conditions compared to a year ago. Most of the improvement is due to the wet winter, however, the 2010 summer was also wetter than average in most of Arizona’s watersheds. Currently four watersheds have no drought, six watersheds are abnormally dry, and five watersheds are in moderate drought.

Precipitation forecasts for Arizona for the upcoming winter and spring seasons are bleak with a strong La Nina event underway in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina will likely result in increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Widespread moderate to severe drought conditions may develop by later this spring.

The Arizona State Forestry Division and Arizona Game and Fish Department provided their annual updates on forest health and impacts to wildlife. The University of Arizona also presented on drought impacts reported through Arizona DroughtWatch, a drought impact reporting system developed by the University, in conjunction with ADWR. The reports showed the following:

• Many parts of the state are still suffering from long-term precipitation deficits that affect vegetation health and water supplies.
• Wildlife habitat is still in poor condition after many years of drought.
• Concern for next spring is the potential for bark beetles to infest the forests damaged from the tornados in northern Arizona, and kill surrounding standing ponderosa pines, followed by fires once all the material has dried out. More on forest health conditions.

Based on this information, the ICG made a unanimous decision to recommend that both drought declarations be kept in place.

The following reports were provided by the Salt River Project (SRP) on the Salt and Verde watersheds, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) on the Colorado River Basin, and the State Drought Monitoring Technical Committee on climate conditions. A few of the main points are described below and form the basis of the ICG’s recommendation:

• Although the Verde and Salt reservoir systems are full, the Colorado reservoir system, which provides 40% of Arizona’s water supply, is still well below its average level.
• Data show normal to severe long-term drought conditions across the state.
• Precipitation totals have been below normal:
  o In the Salt Watershed - 9 of the past 17 years
  o In the Little Colorado Watershed - 12 of the past 17 years
  o In the Santa Cruz Watershed - 12 of the past 17 years
  o In the Upper Gila Watershed - 10 of the past 14 years
• Although this winter was wetter than average, long-term drought status, in comparison to last year, is worse for most of Arizona’s watersheds due to below average precipitation over the last four years.

The updates confirmed that although winter precipitation was above average, all of Arizona’s watersheds except the Lower Gila remain in long-term drought. Based on this information, the ICG made a unanimous decision to recommend that both drought declarations be kept in place.

The updates presented at the November 6, 2012 meeting confirmed that Arizona remains in long term drought with projections for warmer temperatures and increased wildfire risk. Key points include the following:

• The entire state continues to be in some level of drought, with the driest conditions continuing in the central and southeastern part of the state. The overall condition for the 2012 water year is moderate drought.
• The current outlook for winter 2012-2013 is slightly better chances for above average temperatures, and equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation. The outlook for summer 2013 is increased chances of above average temperature, and equal chances for monsoon precipitation to be above, below, or near normal.
• The impact of drought on range and farmland resulted in a U.S. Department of Agriculture disaster designation for all Arizona counties. The average forage production across Arizona was approximately 63 percent of normal for 2012. Even though monsoon rainfall resulted in significant greening, many areas are still very dry, with drying stockponds and dry grasses in pasture land.
• Wildfires had less overall impact on forest health in 2012 than 2011, however, areas of reburn are becoming a concern, there has been an increase in defoliating insect activity possibly exacerbated by drought, and the continuing drought increases the state’s vulnerability to wildfires statewide. Also, the intensity of wildfires and their proximity to development are increasing. 

Presentations:

Drought-related Disasters and Hazards

Fire Season and Forest Health Update

Impacts of Drought on Wildlife

Range and Forage Health Conditions Update

Based on this information, the ICG unanimously recommended that both drought declarations be kept in place:

• Drought Emergency Declaration (PCA 99006) has been in effect since June 1999 and maintains the state’s ability to provide emergency response if needed. It also enables farmers and ranchers to obtain funding assistance through the Farm Service Agency if they experience production losses due to drought.
• The Drought Declaration for the State of Arizona (Executive Order 2007-10) was issued in May 2007 to raise awareness of Arizona’s continuing long-term drought and encourage conservation.

Nov 6, 2012 Drought Recommendation Letter to the Governor

The updates presented at the May 10, 2012 Interagency Coordinating Group meeting confirmed that Arizona remains in long term drought, with 69% of the state experiencing severe to extreme drought compared to 31% a year ago. Projections include warmer temperatures, increased wildfire risk, and persisting or intensifying drought. Key points include the following:

• The temperature outlook for this summer is above normal, and the U.S. Drought Monitor Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts that drought in Arizona is likely to persist or intensify through July 2012. It is likely that conditions may continue to deteriorate until the monsoon begins, with little opportunity for notable improvement until at least the upcoming winter.
• The Verde and Salt River reservoir systems are currently at 64% of capacity, compared to 85% at this time last year (as of 5/17/12).
• Colorado River inflow into Lake Powell was 33% of normal, the third lowest on record since 1909 for April through June, and is projected to be 51% of normal for the water year (October 2011 through September 2012). The current Colorado River reservoir system storage stands at 62%. It is projected that Lake Powell and Lake Mead storage will generally decline through 2013.
• The continuing drought conditions have increased the state’s vulnerability to wildfires statewide, and fire restrictions are currently in effect for all counties. Other factors that contribute to the increased wildfire threat are the predicted warmer than normal temperatures, windy periods as upper level systems pass by, and the typically “dry” thunderstorms (lightening with little rain) early in the monsoon.
•  The impact of drought, high winds, and wildfires on range and farmland have resulted in U.S. Department of Agriculture disaster designations for all counties except for two (Greenlee and Apache). Forage production is reduced and there are shortages in livestock water around the state.

Presentations:

Salt and Verde River System Update

Colorado River Basin Update

Drought Status, Impacts and Outlook

The updates presented at the November 13, 2015 meeting confirmed that Arizona remains in long-term drought.

Fall 2014 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Combined Presentations

• Drought Status Summary and Outlook - Nancy Selover, MTC Co-chair, Arizona State University
• Mark O’Malley, MTC Co-chair; National Weather Service
• Local Drought Impacts on Municipal and Domestic Users - Michael J. Lacey, ICG Co-chair, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Colorado River Hydrology Update - Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• DroughtView: New Tools for Monitoring Drought across Arizona - Michael A. Crimmins, University of Arizona
• 2014 Fire Season, Forest and Woodland Health - Bob Celaya, David Geyer, Byron Kimball - Arizona State Forestry Division
• Impacts of 2014 Drought on Wildlife - Ed Jahrke, Arizona Game and Fish Department
• Recent Effects of Changing Precipitation Patterns on NE Arizona Drought - Margaret Hiza Redsteer, USGS, Flagstaff

The updates presented at the May 13, 2014 meeting confirmed that Arizona remains in long-term drought with projections for warmer temperatures. Key points include the following:

• We have now finished our fourth consecutive dry winter within the state watersheds and the third consecutive dry winter in the Colorado River Basin. The entire state except for the far southwestern edge continues to be in some level of drought, ranging from abnormally dry to severe.

• The summer monsoon was wetter than normal and wet conditions occurred in November and December. However, warmer than normal late winter temperatures along with dry and windy conditions led to deterioration of all watersheds except the Lower Colorado.

• Reservoir levels in all the watersheds are near or below 50% of capacity. It is projected that Lake Powell and Lake Mead storage will generally decline through 2016. The Colorado River Basin is experiencing a 14-year drought that is the driest in the historical record dating back to 1906. This is the fourth year that the Salt and Verde watershed experienced below median winter runoff. While communities in some areas of the state are facing water shortages, the major metropolitan areas are not facing immediate water crises.

• An analysis of drought conditions, fine fuels, weather patterns and the monsoon outlook suggests above normal fire season potential and an earlier onset, especially in the southern and eastern brushlands.

• The 2014 summer outlook's odds favor above normal temperatures. The outlook also has very slightly enhanced odds for above-average precipitation, but there is no way to estimate monsoon precipitation. 

Based on this information, the ICG unanimously recommended that both drought declarations be kept in place:

Presentations

• Drought & Arizona's Vision for Water Supply Sustainability
• Monitoring Technical Committee Drought Status & Activities                                                                                 
• Summer 2014 Outlook & Winter Preview                                                                                                                                                              
• Colorado River Basin Update
• Salt & Verde Watersheds- Water Supply Update
• Wildfire Season Outlook

May 2014 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor