ICG Agenda - November 28, 2018

Meeting Summary

Drought Status

Drought conditions at the end of 2017 water year were minimal due to the relatively wet winter of 2016-17 and a reasonably wet, though short, monsoon season. Only the southwest remained in moderate drought, central and eastern Arizona were abnormally dry, and the northwest and southeast experienced no drought. As the water year began in October 2017 however, the state had dried out and remained dry until mid-December. A few winter storms dropped scant precipitation through March, bringing severe and extreme drought back to the state. By April 2018, the entire state was in moderate drought or worse. The northwest and southern third of the state were in Severe Drought, while central and northeastern Arizona were in Extreme Drought. Spring continued to be quite dry with forest fires around the state, and water hauling for livestock and wildlife. The fire threat became so extreme that state lands were closed to recreational use. Groundwater wells ran dry in a number of places around the state. By the time the 2018 monsoon activity began, the moisture deficits were significant, and the monsoon rainfall was not sufficient to make up the deficits on the Colorado Plateau and in southwestern Arizona. However, the Mogollon Rim, southern Coconino and northern Yavapai counties, and the southeast corner of the state showed one-category drought improvement.

Weather Outlook

Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific have warmed fairly rapidly during the late summer and fall of 2018 leading to the likelihood of an El Niño phase during the winter of 2018-19. There is better than a 90% chance of an El Niño persisting through the winter months and perhaps persisting through spring 2019. While many other factors can influence the winter weather patterns in Arizona, the El Niño phase has historically provided some influence in long-term winter predictions for the Southwest United States. The El Niño phase this winter will likely peak only in a weak category but could briefly touch a moderate stage. A more prolonged moderate El Niño is unlikely, but a period of more heightened warmer Pacific waters could tilt the odds towards a wetter than normal winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center official outlook for January-March 2019 indicates a better chance that the average temperature will be above normal. This is supported by both forecast models and the longer-term trend of distinctly warmer winters in the Southwest over the past 10-20 years (i.e. climate change).

Salt River & Verde River Watersheds – Water Supply Status

In 2018, the Salt River and Verde River watersheds experienced the lowest winter runoff season (January-May) on record dating back to 1913 with only 100,000 acre-feet of inflow. As a result, Roosevelt Lake saw little to no increase in storage remaining at approximately 58% throughout the winter. In addition, Bartlett and Horseshoe reservoirs on the Verde system declined from 59% to 31% following the dry winter. During the monsoon season, slightly above normal precipitation was received; however due to extremely dry conditions throughout the watershed, only minimal additional runoff occurred with little to no impact on overall storage. As of October 3, 2018, total storage of the Salt and Verde system was at 46% capacity compared to 65% at this time last year.

Colorado River – Water Supply Status

Cumulative precipitation received within the Upper Colorado River Basin during water year 2018 was 65% of average. The Colorado River total system storage experienced a net decrease of 4.9 MAF (~8%) and reservoir storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead decreased by 3.629 MAF and 0.312 MAF respectively in water year 2018 compared to water year 2017. As of November 26, 2018, total system storage was 46% of capacity (27.39 MAF). Snowpack conditions throughout the 2018 snow accumulation season (October - April) also trended below average across most of the Colorado River Basin. On April 1, 2018, basin-wide snow-water equivalent measured 73% of average. April through July unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 2.6 MAF, which is 36% of average. Lower Colorado River Basin tributary inflows upstream and downstream from Lake Mead were also below average for water year 2018. Though no shortage will be declared in 2019, the official operational forecast made by United States Bureau of Reclamation in August 2018 shows a 57% chance of a shortage declaration in 2020.

Impacts of Drought on Wildlife

Over one million gallons of water were hauled to various catchments around Arizona from January through August 2018. Over 400,000 gallons were hauled to the Yuma region alone. Populations of Arizona Toads, Chiricahua Leopard Frogs, and Sonoran Tiger Salamanders have been negatively impacted by the loss of breeding habitats such as streams, ponds, and stock tanks that have gone dry due to drought conditions. Additionally, the drought had likely played a role in an outbreak of epizootic hemorrhagic disease amongst deer populations in the Prescott area. Toxic algal blooms caused by low water levels and warmer temperatures have been observed in numerous lakes throughout the state, posing a threat to fish, wildlife, and people.

Forest Health and Wildfire Season Update

As of November 26, 2018, 1,968 fires damaged 161,356 acres in Arizona in 2018, a decrease from the 419,418 acres burned by numerous large-scale wildfires in 2017. This decrease is mainly attributed to the closure of public lands for recreational activities and not to improved drought conditions, which in fact were much more severe in 2018 than in 2017. Heavy rainfall in October triggered an increased growth of warm weather vegetation, acting as fine fuels that will become susceptible to fire as they go dormant. The current drought stresses forests and urban vegetation and renders trees vulnerable and less capable of deterring pests. Based on historic data, Arizona is experiencing bark beetle conditions similar to the onset of the 2002-2003 infestation that impacted 2.2 million acres of trees during these very dry years. Currently, the 2018 aerial and ground survey detected 275,934 acres of trees impacted by bark beetles compared to 45,003 acres in 2017, which is an increase of 513%. Roughly 90% of the current bark beetle damage is occurring in ponderosa pine, one of the more valuable trees in Arizona.

Impacts of Drought on the Navajo Nation

The Navajo Nation experienced significant drought impacts during the past year, which triggered the renewal of the Nation’s Drought Emergency Declaration in February 2018. Each of the Nation’s five agencies have observed a downward trend in annual average precipitation since 1984. August and September were much drier than average, with areas receiving as little as 32% of average precipitation. Tropical storm activity in October however, brought all five agencies’ annual precipitation to above average. The Navajo Nation is currently updating its 2003 Drought Contingency Plan and is considering other drought indices, such as evapotranspiration.

Presentations

• Drought Status Update and Monitoring Technical Committee Activities, Nancy Selover, State Climatologist, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-Chair
• Winter 2018-2019 Weather Outlook, Mark O'Malley, National Weather Service, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Salt River & Verde River Watershed Water Supplies, Stephen Flora, Salt River Project
• Colorado River Water Supply Status, Rabi Gyawali, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Impacts of Drought on Wildlife, David Weedman, Arizona Game & Fish Department
• Forest Health and Wildfire Season Update, John Richardson, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management
• Impacts of Drought on the Navajo Nation, Carlee McClellan, Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources

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ICG Agenda - May 29, 2018

Meeting Summary

Drought Status

This water year (WY) has been very dry across the western U. S. and Arizona received very little rain and snow, which exacerbated short-term drought conditions. Monsoon storms were almost entirely limited to the month of July, and from October through December, less than 25% of average precipitation was received. Snow cover is typically highest across the Southwest on March 1^st; however, snow cover observed this March was minimal to non-existent, putting the entire basin in a snow drought. As of late May, 3% of the State was in Moderate Drought, 24% in Severe Drought, 57% in Extreme Drought and 16% in Exceptional Drought. This is a stark contrast to May of last year in which the northern half of Arizona was completely free of drought and the southern part was partly in abnormally dry and in moderate drought conditions. This exceptionally dry winter has extended the wildfire season, decimated forage, and led to many wells going dry. Even native desert vegetation, such as creosotes, appear to be dying in some locations. Over the past month, there has been an increase in water hauling, supplementing feed for livestock, and culling of herds. These drought conditions have also led to drought emergency declarations in Yuma County and the Navajo Nation. Long-term statewide average precipitation in WY 2017 seemed to be nearing the mean (12.59 inches) of recorded data, however that trend is now sloping downwards with less than 10 inches of rain in WY 2018 thus far.

Weather Outlook

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for Summer 2018 suggests slightly enhanced odds for wetter than normal monsoon season due to warmer than average East Pacific waters and likelihood that the typical summer subtropical high-pressure system will be favorably located to frequently bring moisture into the State. However, summer thunderstorms are usually quite erratic and may only provide partial and local relief to long-term drought conditions. Temperatures this summer are likely to be warmer than average based on consistent trends in recent years. The weak to moderate La Niña conditions, which existed last Fall and Winter and were partially responsible for the poor rain and snow in the Southwest, are now transitioning into a neutral state. Based on past winters’ trend, there are better odds for above normal temperatures this winter. There is no large tilt in odds for above, below or near normal precipitation for the upcoming winter.

Salt River & Verde River Watersheds – Water Supply Status

Salt-Verde watershed cumulative precipitation for August through April amounted to 5.17 inches, which is 33% of normal and the driest on record (since 1896). Salt River, Tonto Creek, and Verde River spring runoff from 2011 to 2018 indicate the driest consecutive 8-year period on record. Inflow from January to May amounts to 99,000 acre feet compared to last year’s 970,440 acre feet. Since 2010, reservoir storage has declined 57% from 2.311 million acre feet (MAF) to 1.337 MAF. Utilizing both the gaged record and the University of Arizona’s Tree Ring Laboratory record from 1361 to 2005, SRP has determined that the last 23-years (1996—2018) have been the driest in the entire record (1361—2018), officially making the last few decades the worst megadrought in recorded history for the Salt and Verde basins. Despite the dry conditions, total system storage of Salt River Project (SRP) reservoirs amounts to 1.309 MAF (57% of maximum capacity) as of mid-May due to calculated water management.

Colorado River – Water Supply Status

This winter was exceptionally dry on most of the Colorado River basin, and the entire system reservoirs are at 51% of maximum capacity or 30.434 million acre feet (MAF). This is only a decrease of roughly 1% from last May. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at 52% (12.679 MAF) and 39% (10.247 MAF) of capacity, respectively. Lake Mead’s elevation is just below 1,083 feet, eight feet above Tier-1 shortage. In the Upper Basin, this year’s snow water equivalent reached 12 inches at its peak, which is 4 inches below the 1981-2010 median, and only 51% (5.5 MAF) of unregulated inflow is projected for Lake Powell. Projected elevations for Lake Powell and Mead by year-end are approximately 3590.43 feet or 45% of capacity (a 13% decrease from December 2017) and 1079.1 feet or 38% of capacity, respectively. Though no shortage on the Lower Basin is currently predicated for 2019, the Bureau of Reclamation predicts a 52% probability of a Tier-1 shortage in 2020. Furthermore, this is the first time that the probability of a double-digit Tier-3 shortage has been projected within a 5-year outlook period.

Impacts of Drought on Wildlife

In the Pinetop Region, 110,150 gallons of water were already hauled so far this spring to 41 catchments. Increased salinity in SRP reservoirs and urban lakes due to low inflows cause growth of golden algae bloom, which is toxic to fish. Low spring inflow into one of the endangered Gila topminnow habitat cause the disappearance of one of its population as the habitat could no longer support the fish.

Forest Health and Wildfire Season Update

Many of last year’s burned acres regrew before the State launched into 120 days of dry weather providing ample fine fuels that invite greater opportunity for fire activity. As of May 20, there have been 611 fires: 604 of these were caused by human activity while 7 by natural conditions. Many state lands are currently closed to recreation, which have helped reduce wildfire occurrence. Drought stress in forest and urban vegetation render trees vulnerable and less capable of deterring pests. Increased juniper mortality due to drought stress has been observed this year. In addition, 80,469 acres of forest trees were killed or damaged due to bark beetles and defoliators/sap feeders in 2017. Yet these figures pale in comparison to the extremely dry years of 2002 and 2003 when bark beetles decimated 570,000 to 763,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest.

Northern Arizona Forest Fund Efforts

The Northern Arizona Forest Fund (NAFF), a regional initiative of the National Forest Foundation, supports watershed restoration projects across five forests in Northern Arizona. Over $2.5 million have already been invested over 4 years, engaging 24 donors and 200 volunteers who donated over 1500 hours. So far, 21 restoration projects have been completed in non-market-value, high-priority locations where restoration work would not have otherwise been funded. The NAFF is working on improving hydrologic functions through restoration of springs, wetlands, streams, and meadows. NAFF projects also focus on minimizing severe fire risk through prescribed burning, small-diameter tree thinning and sediment and erosion control improving the flow and quality of waterways and reservoirs. In program year 2017, NAFF efforts have reduced 31 tons of sediment on 37 miles of roads and trails, replenished 2.3 million gallons of water, and reduced fire risk by 27% on 3,500 acres.

Spring 2018 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Presentations

• Drought Status Update & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities, Nancy Selover, State Climatologist, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-Chair
• Summer 2017-2018 Weather Outlook, Mark O'Malley, National Weather Service, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Colorado River - Water Supply Update, Jeff Inwood, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Salt River & Verde River Watershed - Water Supply Update, Charlie Ester, Salt River Project
• Forest Health & Wildfire Season Update Jeff Whitney, John Richardson, Steve Mckelvey, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management 
• Northern Arizona Forest Fund Efforts Rebecca Davidson, National Forest Foundation

Interagency Coordinating Group Webinar

Interagency Coordinating Group Webinar

Presentations

• 2007 Arizona Drought Preparedness Annual Report
• Climate Conditions Status & Monitoring Technical committee Activities
• Forest Health and Wildfire Activity
• Rangeland Health Status
• Impacts of Drought on Wildlife
• Arizona Drought Impact Reporting System

Recommendation to the Governor to Maintain Drought Declarations

The following reports formed the basis of the ICG's recommendation to maintain both drought declarations (Drought Emergency PCA 99006 & Drought Declaration Executive Order 2007-10):

The State Drought Monitoring Technical Committee’s update showed that long-term drought conditions are much worse than they have been in recent years. During the water year, precipitation was below 70% of average for most of the state. Nearly half of the state is currently in severe drought.

The Arizona State Forestry Division, Natural Resources Conservation Service, and Arizona Game & Fish Department provided their annual updates on forest and rangeland health and impacts to wildlife, which showed the following:

• Many parts of the state are still suffering from long-term precipitation deficits, which affect vegetation health, wildlife and livestock, water supplies (low-producing springs, surface water flows and well production), and range and pasture conditions.
• 216,818 acres of wildland fire burned in 2009, the most acres burned since 2005. Lack of regenerative fires and long-term drought are considered major factors in the decline of aspen trees, especially those stands growing at the lower elevations (see 2009 Forest Health Condition Highlights for more information).
• Impacts due to long-term drought are resulting in crop losses, irrigation water shortages, livestock water and forage shortages and water hauling.
• Wildlife habitat is still in poor condition after many years of drought. 

Reports were provided by the Salt River Project (SRP) on the Salt and Verde watersheds, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) on the Colorado River Basin, and the State Drought Monitoring Technical Committee on climate conditions. A few of the main points are described below and form the basis of the ICG’s recommendation:

• Although the Verde and Salt reservoir systems are nearly full, the Colorado reservoir system, which provides 40% of Arizona’s water supply, is still well below its average level.
• Data show abnormally dry to moderate long-term drought conditions across the state.
• Precipitation totals have been below normal:
  • In Prescott - 13 of the past 14 years
  • In Springerville - eight of the past 14 years
  • In Flagstaff - 11 of the past 14 years
  • In Phoenix and Tucson - 12 of the past 14 years

• Winter precipitation amounts have been well below average statewide.
• In comparison to last year, drought status in a few watersheds has improved; however, precipitation over the last four years has generally been below average for most of Arizona’s watersheds.

The group decided during last year’s spring meeting that Arizona would need at least three consecutive wet winters to consider discontinuing the drought declarations, and unfortunately that did not occur. The updates confirmed that although winter precipitation looked good at the beginning of the season, the winter of 2008 - 2009 turned out to be drier than average. Based on this information, the ICG made a unanimous decision to recommend that both drought declarations be kept in place:

• Drought Emergency Declaration (PCA 99006) has been in effect since June 1999 and maintains the state’s ability to provide emergency response if needed. It also enables farmers and ranchers to obtain funding assistance through the Farm Service Agency if they experience production losses due to drought.
• The Drought Declaration for the State of Arizona (Executive Order 2007-10) was issued in May 2007 to raise awareness of Arizona’s continuing long-term drought and encourage conservation.

The Monitoring Technical Committee’s annual update indicated that the overall condition for the 2011 water year is moderate drought, with significant degradation from a year ago both in northern Arizona and the southeastern watersheds. Cumulative precipitation was below normal in all of the state’s major river basins, ranging from 65 to 95 percent of the 30-year average. Winter snowpack was well below normal and summer precipitation was very localized. Streamflow decreased in 14 of the 26 basins and stayed the same in 12 basins. The outlook for the 2012 water year indicates that La Niña conditions will emerge again this coming winter favoring a drier than normal winter and a warmer than normal spring. This will likely result in worsening drought conditions.

Monitoring Technical Committee Presentations: Climate Conditions, 2012 Climate Outlook,  Arizona Drought Watch Tree-Ring Record

Reports by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, Arizona State Forestry Division and Arizona Game and Fish Department showed that many parts of the state are still suffering from long-term precipitation deficits that affect vegetation health and water supplies as described below:

• The average forage production across Arizona was approximately 56 percent of normal, and the outlook for 2012 is 57 percent of normal or less.
• Wildfires had the largest impact on forest health in 2011, with more than 1,000,000 acres burned. Bark beetles did not present a problem as anticipated, possibly due to a few cold snaps in spring.
• Livestock water shortages occurred throughout the state, and in many cases livestock operators relied on water hauling or reductions in herds.
• Several NRCS field offices reported irrigation water shortages and expected crop production losses ranging from 10 to 90 percent, with serious impacts in the northeastern part of the state where dry-farming practices are prevalent.
• Wildlife habitat is still in poor condition after many years of drought, resulting in diminished wildlife populations.

Based on this information, the ICG made a unanimous decision to recommend that both drought declarations be kept in place:

• Drought Emergency Declaration (PCA 99006) has been in effect since June 1999 and maintains the state’s ability to provide emergency response if needed. It also enables farmers and ranchers to obtain funding assistance through the Farm Service Agency if they experience production losses due to drought.
• The Drought Declaration for the State of Arizona (Executive Order 2007-10) was issued in May 2007 to raise awareness of Arizona’s continuing long-term drought and encourage conservation.

November 17, 2011 Recommendation to the Honorable Janice K. Brewer, Arizona Governor 

The following reports were provided by the Salt River Project (SRP) on the Salt and Verde watersheds, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) on the Colorado River Basin, the State Drought Monitoring Technical Committee on climate condition, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service  on livestock water and forage conditions. A few of the main points are described below:

• Although the Verde and Salt reservoir systems are currently 86% full and increases in the Colorado River reservoirs will forestall drought-related water rationing in Arizona until 2015 or later, data show that much of the state remains in drought conditions.
• Normal to extreme long-term drought conditions occur across the state, with the driest conditions in the southeastern part of the state. Only Mohave County and the western edge of La Paz County are characterized as not experiencing drought at this time.
• Of the previous four years, only 2010 was a wetter than average year and did not reverse the effects of the previous dry years. In fact, long-term drought status is worse for most watersheds.
• According to the Natural Resources Conservation Services (NRCS) Field Offices, less than 64% of normal forage production will occur in 2011. They also reported shortages in livestock water around the state and irrigation water shortages that could result in crop production losses ranging from 10 to 80 percent. In addition to poor rangeland conditions, native desert vegetation also exhibits signs of stress, especially in the western and southern counties.

The updates confirmed that although reservoirs supplying western and central Arizona are adequate, all of Arizona’s watersheds except the Lower Gila and Lower Colorado remain in long-term drought. Based on this information, the ICG made a unanimous decision to recommend that both drought declarations be kept in place.

May 23, 2011 Recommendation to the Office of Governor Janice K. Brewer

Fall 2013 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Spring 2013 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Agenda - November 10, 2015

Meeting Summary

Both winter and summer of 2015 were wetter than in 2014, however, similar to last year, snow accumulation was well below normal across most of the state. While the drought appears to be easing, it is not over. More than two-thirds of the state is abnormally dry or in moderate drought, reservoirs are only approximately half full, and every Arizona county had a disaster designation during water year 2015. It will take several years of above average precipitation to break the grip of the drought that is approaching 21 years.

Strong El Niño conditions are currently in place and will most likely continue into the spring. This means there may be more rain and more rainfall days than usual. Mountain snowfall, however, may or may not be above average.

The current Colorado River reservoir system storage stands at 51% of capacity as of November 8, 2015, approximately the same as last year. The forecast shows a 0% chance of a shortage declaration in 2016 and an 18% chance in 2017. The Salt and Verde reservoirs remain at the same levels as this time last year, approximately 49% full.

Due to the moist conditions, water year 2015 was a light year for fires. However, the above average rainfall has resulted in an abundance of continuous fine fuels in general across the state which could potentially lead to a busy wildfire season, depending on weather patterns in late spring. Extreme fire danger continues to be a threat in forests due to the extreme density of trees.

The impact of drought on range and farmland resulted in disaster designations for all counties in the state. Drought conditions affected dryland farming and irrigation water supply resulting in crop loss, reduced rangeland water supply, and reduced forage supply.

Recommendation

Based on this information, the ICG unanimously recommended that both drought declarations be kept in place:

• Drought Emergency Declaration (PCA 99006) has been in effect since June 1999 and maintains the state’s ability to provide emergency response if needed. It also enables farmers and ranchers to obtain funding assistance through the Farm Service Agency if they experience production losses due to drought.

• The Drought Declaration for the State of Arizona (Executive Order 2007-10) was issued in May 2007 to raise awareness of Arizona’s continuing long-term drought and encourage conservation.

Presentations

• 2015 Drought Status Update & Activities of the Drought Monitoring Technical Committee (MTC). Nancy Selover, State climatologist, ASU faculty and co-chair of the MTC
• Winter 2015-2016 Weather Outlook & El Niño Update. Mark O’Malley, Lead forecaster and climate specialist, NWS and co-chair of the MTC
• Colorado River Basin Water Supply Update. Tom Buschatzke, Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• 2015 Wildfire Summary and 2016 Outlook. Jeff Whitney, State forester, Arizona State Forestry
• Forest & Woodland Health Update. Bob Celaya, Forest health specialist, Arizona State Forestry
• Disaster Designations Related to Drought. Ryan Hunt, GIS specialist, USDA Farm Service Agency

Fall 2015 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor

Agenda - May 5, 2015

Meeting Summary

Although Arizona's long-term drought status has improved somewhat from one year ago, most of the state continues to experience moderate to severe drought. The only drought-free area is in the southwestern part of the state. There is a very slight chance of warmer and wetter weather over much of the state this coming summer. The outlook for next winter calls for equal chances that temperatures will be above, below or near normal and only a very slight chance of above normal precipitation.

The current Colorado River reservoir system storage stands at 47% of total system capacity, and levels are expected to drop due to minimal run-off and dry conditions. The US Bureau of Reclamation’s April projections show a 33% probability of a Tier 1 shortage in the Lower Basin for 2016 and a 75% probability for a Tier 1 shortage in 2017. The Salt and Verde reservoir level remain at approximately 57% of normal due to increased use of groundwater to meet demand.

Fire potential and fuels will have to be carefully monitored as they respond to the typically hot, dry weather in June, changes in drought conditions, and the potential for multiple lightening outbreaks during the monsoon season. There are areas with higher than normal fine fuel loads from two previous monsoon seasons and recent winter/spring moisture.

Combined Presentations- May 5, 2015 ICG Meeting

•    Drought Status Update and Activities of the Monitoring Technical Committee - Nancy Selover, Arizona State University,
•    Summer 2014 Outlook and Winter 2015-16 Preview - Mark O’Malley, National Weather Service
•    Colorado River Water Supply Update -Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources
•    Salt & Verde Watersheds- Water Supply Update - James Walter, Salt River Project 
•    Wildfire Outlook -Jeff Whitney, Arizona State Forestry
•    Update on California Drought - Chris Harris, California Colorado River Board

Spring 2015 Drought ICG Recommendation Letter to the Governor